Welcome to The Radar, a Sky Sports column in which Nick Wright uses a blend of data and opinion to shed light on need-to-know stories from up and down the Premier League. This week:
🔴 Amorim's system could trouble Liverpool
💪 Merino showing his value to Arsenal
🔍 A player to watch this weekend
Could Amorim exploit a Liverpool weakness?
Ruben Amorim's system continues to dominate the discourse around Manchester United. His devotion to playing three at the back has come to be seen as a flaw but it might just work in his side's favour when they face Liverpool on Super Sunday.
Arne Slot's side, on an uncharacteristic run of three consecutive defeats, tend to find playing against back threes more difficult.
The issue has been most apparent against Crystal Palace, one of few other Premier League sides who habitually deploy a back three. Liverpool are winless in three games against them if you throw in the penalty-shootout defeat in the Community Shield in August.
Even the five Premier League games Liverpool have won against back threes since the start of last season, away at Crystal Palace, Southampton and Burnley and at home against Wolves and West Ham, have been nervy affairs settled by one-goal margins.
Manchester United have of course caused problems for Slot's side too, securing a 2-2 draw on their last visit to Anfield in January, when they used their wing-backs to create overloads in wide areas in a performance described by Gary Neville as their best under Amorim.
They will return to Anfield as underdogs on Sunday. Amazingly, Manchester United are yet to win back-to-back Premier League games under Amorim. But their last visit offers a blueprint to follow and they typically fare better in these kinds of assignments.
In fact, in Premier League games in which they have had less possession than their opponent under Amorim, Manchester United's win rate is nearly twice as high as when they have had more, while their loss rate drops from 64 per cent to 25 per cent.
The numbers are of course influenced to some extent by game-state. A team holding a lead is more likely to relinquish possession, just as a team trailing is more likely to have more of it as they try to open their opponent up and find a way back into the game.
But the trend is not unique to Manchester United.
Since the start of last season, Premier League sides using back threes have had less possession, on average, in games they have won and drawn compared to the games they have lost.
It supports the argument that a back three is a reactive system, and at its most effective, at least in most cases, when used as a means to absorb pressure and spring forward quickly using transitions.
Whether it is the right approach for a club of Manchester United's stature in the long-term is debateable. On Sunday against Liverpool, though, it probably offers their best hope of getting a result.
Underrated Merino showing his value
Mikel Merino's inclusion has become a point of contention among Arsenal fans but he is pushing to start against Fulham, live on Sky Sports on Saturday, after another fruitful international break.
The 29-year-old made it six goals in four appearances for Spain with his double against Bulgaria on Tuesday. Only Erling Haaland and Memphis Depay have scored more times in European World Cup qualifying. Merino's tally is equal to Harry Kane's.
His eye for goal is not new. Merino has scored 16 times in 35 games for club and country since his late double in Arsenal's 2-0 win over Leicester in February, when he was pressed into the role of striker for the first time following an injury to Kai Havertz.
The positional change proved transformative for Merino, who had never previously played up front. But his goals for Spain have come from midfield and so did his latest for Arsenal, the headed equaliser in the late victory over Newcastle at St James' Park.
Merino excels at timing his runs into the box. "He can smell danger," said Mikel Arteta in February. But his extraordinary aerial threat, showcased again with his headed double against Bulgaria, is not his only weapon when it comes to finishing scoring chances.
Seven of his 16 goals since February have been dispatched with his head but Merino has also scored four with his weaker right foot, as well as five with his left. "Not showy or flashy, but complete," is how one former coach describes him to Sky Sports.
Spain's Luis de la Fuente uses the same term. "He is so complete, we are lucky to have him," he said. Merino's value to Arteta is similarly clear. But it is fair to say perceptions externally are not universally positive. He continues to be mischaracterised as a defensive player, his selection seen by some as a symbol of conservatism.
Merino is not a fleet-footed creator in the mould of Eberechi Eze or Martin Odegaard, that is true. But he would not be starting every game for Spain if he lacked technical ability and his off-the-ball qualities are invaluable in pressing opponents high up the pitch.
Goals are of course the most important currency of all and, in Merino's case, it is worth noting context as well as volume.
He counts Liverpool, Chelsea, Newcastle, Real Madrid, France and Netherlands among the teams he has scored against over the last eight months. His eight Premier League goals have won Arsenal twice as many points as any other player's.
It all adds up to make him vitally important to both club and country, despite fierce competition for places on both fronts. It would be no surprise to see him show his value again at Craven Cottage.
Player Radar: Who else to keep an eye on
Donyell Malen was Aston Villa's match-winner as his double clinched a 2-1 victory over Burnley in their last game and he added another goal for Netherlands during the international break.
He has had to be patient since arriving at Villa from Borussia Dortmund in January but looks ready to belatedly make his mark in the Premier League with Spurs next up on Sunday.
Live Radar: What's on Sky this weekend?
Fulham welcome Arsenal to Stamford Bridge for Saturday Night Football. Tune in for coverage on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event from 5pm, with kick-off at 5.30pm.
On Sunday Spurs face Aston Villa in the 2pm kick-off live on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event, followed by Liverpool's showdown with Man Utd at 4.30pm.
Monday Night Football returns as West Ham face Brentford, with coverage starting at 6.30pm on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event ahead of the 8pm kick-off.
Last week's column examined Mohamed Salah's dip for Liverpool and why he's missing Trent Alexander-Arnold. There was also a look at Arsenal's formidable defensive numbers this season and Graham Potter's unceremonious end at West Ham.
