Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the Premier League weekend.
West Ham vs Sunderland, Saturday 12.30pm
Enzo Le Fée has quietly slipped under the radar of wider footballing circles but not the eyes of Sunderland supporters.
Le Fée's season pivoted the moment he was moved into a more central role. Freed from the touchline and given licence to operate between the lines, his influence has surged. He's dictating tempo, demanding the ball and, most importantly for this bet, shooting more. The numbers back it up.
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Le Fée has scored in his last two matches and across that run has hit four shots on target.
At 5/4 with Sky Bet to hit one or more shots on target the market still hasn't caught up with his positional shift or his growing assertiveness in the final third.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Burnley vs Tottenham, Saturday 3pm
A 1-1 draw with Liverpool doesn't mask the bigger picture for Burnley, which is damning. Across all the key underlying metrics, Burnley sit rock-bottom in the Premier League. Expected goals for, expected goals against, shots conceded, box entries allowed - it's a clean sweep of concern.
Spurs' ceiling is miles higher than Burnley's. When they click, they can overwhelm teams. Tuesday's win over Borussia Dortmund was a reminder of what this side can look like when intensity meets quality. Aggressive pressing, fast ball movement and a very solid structure in defence.
Playing away from home hasn't been a negative for Spurs this season - quite the opposite. They've already gone to Manchester City, Crystal Palace, Leeds and Everton and come back with wins. The idea that Turf Moor is an impenetrable fortress doesn't stack up against this Spurs profile.
The Evens for an away win looks generous.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Tottenham to win (Evens with Sky Bet)
Fulham vs Brighton, Saturday 3pm
We can get very caught up in just picking a side in the prediction game. Home win or away win. But sometimes the smartest bet is the one nobody wants to back - and Fulham vs Brighton has draw written all over it.
Just one point separates these two in the Premier League. Both teams are capable of beating good sides on their day, but neither consistently dominates teams of a similar level. When Fulham and Brighton face opponents in this bracket, games tend to settle into long spells of balance.
The draw is the biggest price of the three outcomes and it's the bet nobody wants to back. Punters gravitate towards winners. Bookmakers know that. So, draw prices often drift organically beyond where the true probability sits, especially in evenly matched fixtures like this. It can be backed here at 9/4 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Manchester City vs Wolves, Saturday 3pm
This is a fixture that automatically drags the goal line up. Manchester City at home, Wolves in town. The market instinctively leans towards a goal-heavy afternoon. But backing this Wolves defence under Rob Edwards has quietly become a profitable strategy. They're tighter, better organised, and far more disciplined without the ball. Over their last eight Premier League games, Wolves rank second best for expected goals against. That's elite defensive process.
Then factor in Manchester City's week. Chaotic is the word. Distractions, noise, pressure and that often leads to pragmatism rather than expression. City don't need to win big here. Any win will do. Control, manage, move on.
Yet, at 1/5 with Sky Bet they are a favourite worth swerving. Of those two win market options, I'd much rather back a Wolves win at 10/1.
That opens up multiple paths for an under goals bet and it's the under 3.5 line at 4/5 with Sky Bet that stands out as the main play.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Under 3.5 goals (4/5 with Sky Bet)
Bournemouth vs Liverpool, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports
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Florian Wirtz's start to life in the Premier League has been a slow burn - but the signs are starting to show that we must start paying attention to him across the prop markets.
The early weeks after his £116m summer move from Leverkusen were awkward. New league, new tempo, new expectations. All that jazz.
Wirtz's end product has caught fire recently though. He's now averaging close to a goal involvement every 102 minutes across his last eight appearances in all competitions.
After failing to score in his first 22 Liverpool appearances, he's now hit the net in four of his last seven. That's a player finding rhythm, timing and trust in his surroundings.
He is 8/1 to open the scoring with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
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Some bets don't need overcomplicating. You look at the venue, you look at the numbers and the picture becomes clear. Brentford at home is one of those situations and the 10/11 with Sky Bet against Nottingham Forest is very hard to turn down.
The Gtech has quietly become one of the toughest places to go in the Premier League. Brentford have taken 24 points from a possible 33 at home, the fourth-best home record in the division. That's not built on soft fixtures either, it's a repeatable edge driven by structure, intensity and crowd energy.
Brentford are aggressive in duels, strong in second balls and ruthless in moments that matter. They turn games into uncomfortable experiences for visiting teams.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Crystal Palace vs Chelsea, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Oliver Glasner's impending departure at the end of the season matters. Even the most professional squads feel it when leadership has an expiry date. Messages lose a fraction of their bite. It doesn't mean Palace will down tools but it does mean focus can blur at the margins and at this level fine margins decide Premier League games.
Chelsea, fresh from their own off-field shake-up, arrive with something Palace lack right now: clarity. No looming exits. No major distractions. Just points to chase and a clear objective under Liam Rosenior to finish in the Champions League places. In matches like this, that mental clarity is an underrated edge and does make Chelsea an interesting betting proposal at Evens with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Newcastle vs Aston Villa, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
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Joelinton and emotional control have always lived on opposite sides of the street. He plays on the edge because Newcastle need him to. Intensity, duels, aggression - it's his job description. And against Aston Villa, that edge has repeatedly tipped into yellow card territory.
Joelinton has been booked in five of the last seven meetings between Newcastle and Villa. That's not a coincidence. Villa bring the kind of technical ball carriers and intelligent movers that force Joelinton into recovery challenges, late tackles and tactical fouls.
Morgan Rogers, Youri Tielemans and Ollie Watkins are card magnets. Since the start of last season, that trio have collectively drawn 48 cards from opposition players. They're clever with their movement, sharp on the turn and excellent at inviting contact in dangerous areas.
The 9/4 with Sky Bet for Joelinton to be carded is a serious runner.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Joelinton to be carded (9/4 with Sky Bet)
Arsenal vs Manchester United, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
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Bukayo Saka's current run of 12 games without a goal in all competitions is his joint-longest drought for Arsenal. From a surface view, that type of run would put people off selecting him in the goalscorer markets. But I see it differently. Trends in football always snap. And timing is everything when it comes to snapping them for profit.
Saka is still Arsenal's creative heartbeat, the outlet for danger and the player most likely to exploit half-chances in the final third. Arsenal are likely to control large portions of this game and Saka will be central to creating or finishing chances.
From a betting standpoint, the question isn't whether Saka will score eventually - it's when. This looks the time to jump on at 7/4 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Everton vs Leeds, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
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Dominic Calvert-Lewin facing Everton for the first time in his career is a classic "ex-factor" scenario. A player with motivation, familiarity and unfinished business - all variables that can't be factored into his goalscorer prices. Add in his current form and this becomes a very juicy angle for punters. Calvert-Lewin has been in electric mood. Eight goals in his last 10 Premier League appearances underline his finishing sharpness and consistency.
He's leading the line for a Leeds team that have netted 17 goals in their last nine Premier League games - second only to Manchester City (18), which paints a picture of a confident team. You can get 2/1 on Calvert-Lewin finding the net.
