Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the Premier League and he isn't ready to trust Manchester United at short prices.
Brighton vs Leeds, Saturday 3pm
A solid betting tactic to use is to give Brighton respect against the big boys and back them to be flaky against the rest.
The Seagulls can turn Manchester City into mush one week, then turn into mush themselves the next against a team battling relegation. All three of Ipswich, Southampton and Leicester avoided defeat at the Amex last season and Brighton have already failed to beat Wolves this campaign when odds-on to do so.
Against sides who sit in, frustrate and counter at speed, they often struggle to convert dominance into results. And Leeds possess the fourth best defensive process in the Premier League this season (9.23 expected goals against). They can make this another fiddly afternoon for the hosts with 10/11 with Sky Bet on Leeds double chance standing out.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Burnley vs Arsenal, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Some bets just make sense. Sometimes the obvious ones are the ones laced with the most value.
You look at the numbers, you look at the patterns, you look at the opposition and you can almost hear the value whispering in your ear, saying "back Arsenal to win to nil."
Yes, the 10/11 with Sky Bet isn't going to change lives but it's a rock-solid play that over time will keep you ahead of the ledger in this battle against the oddsmakers. Arsenal's defensive record isn't just good, it's title-winning, elite, brick-wall good. They've now conceded just three goals in their last 14 matches across all competitions, winning 11 of those without conceding.
If Arsenal win, they almost always do it whilst keeping their sheets clean. And Burnley, for all their endeavour, look ill-equipped to change that narrative.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
Crystal Palace vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Yeremy Pino's start to life at Crystal Palace has been like a sparkler in a petrol station: lively, unpredictable and very dangerous. And that's exactly why Pino to either score or be carded at 5/4 with Sky Bet looks a cracking bet this weekend. Pino has the desire be involved - one way or another - with or without the ball.
Since arriving in south London, he's been averaging 2.5 shots per 90, getting into the central areas of the box regularly and showing exactly the kind of low-centre-of-gravity menace that is hard to mark - as seen by his classy goal at Anfield in midweek.
But there's a flip side. For all that flair, there's a fiery edge. He leaves a leg in when the ball's gone and doesn't take kindly to being kicked himself. He's already been carded in three appearances which backs up his card-happy data from Spain where he was booked 12 times last season at a very healthy rate of 0.52 per 90.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Fulham vs Wolves, Saturday 3pm
Fulham's new attacking livewire Kevin looks to have finally found his feet after being integrated into Marco Silva's system. And for those of us sniffing around the shots on target markets, he's shaping up as a player to follow over the next few weeks. Over his last few appearances, he's been popping up in dangerous areas, pulling defenders apart with his movement and, most importantly, shooting.
He had seven shots in the midweek win on penalties against Wycombe, hitting the target three times. It's time for him now to be trusted in a Premier League game and the 2/1 with Sky Bet for him to have two or more shots on target is brimming with potential.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester United, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Some teams make you feel safe when they're hovering around Evens away from home: Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool, spring to mind.
However, betting Manchester United at these prices is like going back to the ex who says: "I've changed."
You want to believe them, but deep down, you know exactly how this ends with hearts broken, fingers burnt and wallets bruised.
This version of United under Ruben Amorim remain a deeply unreliable, defensively chaotic team. And that makes them punting poison at short prices like they are here at 21/20 with Sky Bet to win at Forest, meaning the home team on the double chance at 8/11 with Sky Bet is the confident play.
Defensively, they're still hanging on by their fingernails. They've conceded 22 big chances in the Premier League this season, more than any other team. That's not bad luck, that's structural fragility, especially in the central midfield area.
A low-scoring home win it is.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Nottingham Forest double chance (8/11 with Sky Bet)
Tottenham vs Chelsea, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
You know a Premier League season has gone a bit rogue when Micky van de Ven, a centre-back who failed to score last season, is Tottenham's top scorer with five goals. But here we are. And for punters, that is where the value hides.
Because at 14/1 with Sky Bet to score anytime against Chelsea, the Dutchman looks a cracking price in a season where defenders have suddenly become the headline acts.
This Premier League season is producing record levels of goals from corners and free-kicks, something which still isn't being factored into the markets. Excluding penalties, 67 of the 241 goals scored this season have come via a set-piece (27.8 per cent). And 45 of those 241 goals scored have come via corners (18.7 per cent), a higher proportion than any other Premier League season.
At 14/1 anytime, Van de Ven's implied probability is just 6.7 per cent. Given his form, Spurs' relentless set-piece output and Chelsea's defending, that number underplays the true probability.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-3 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Micky van de Ven to score (14/1 with Sky Bet)
Liverpool vs Aston Villa, Saturday 8pm
As Liverpool head into a pivotal stretch of their season, the smartest play might just be trusting Arne Slot to get it right again at a time where the narrative is portraying him as someone who is out of his depth.
Because if the title-winning campaign taught us anything, it's that Slot knows how to manage chaos, rotate wisely and keep his squad peaking while others run out of steam.
When Liverpool lifted the Premier League trophy last season, it wasn't just about tactics and in-game substitutions, it was about player management. Slot got the blend between rotation and rhythm spot-on. He trusted his fringe players and made brave calls in the league that left his stars fresh for the big days. That's what this fixture is for Liverpool: a big one.
And Slot knows it, hence why he's sacrificed the Carabao Cup in order to reboot his key players. It's the product of a manager who understands when to gamble and when to protect.
Slot's already proven he can navigate the chaos better than anyone else. He can get Liverpool moving in the right direction again - starting here where the home win is generously priced at 4/6 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
West Ham vs Newcastle, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
West Ham remain unfit for purpose in this Premier League season as they've become a plodding, predictable outfit who are easily bullied.
And this is a terrible match-up for them against perhaps the most aggressive and intense team on these shores.
Joelinton, Bruno Guimaraes, Sandro Tonali and Anthony Gordon all will be licking their lips at winning their individual battles and I'm expecting Newcastle to be at it from the first whistle in order to turn the pressure up on the home players in front of their own fans, who have now seen nine games without a win at home, including five defeats in a row.
Eddie Howe is a marginal gains type of manager and he'll know a fast start to get the home fans turned will be a key tactic to win this match.
So, the way to boost the 8/13 with Sky Bet on a Newcastle win is just to concentrate on the first half. West Ham have scored just four first half goals in their last 20 matches and none in the last seven. Back the Toon to win the first half at 11/10 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-3 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Newcastle to be winning at half-time (11/10 with Sky Bet)
Manchester City vs Bournemouth, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Bournemouth are a punters pal when it comes to over goal lines away from home as 14 of their last 16 matches on the road have sailed over the 2.5 line. And since the start of last season their away games against last season's top five have averaged 3.9 goals per 90.
However, with the Premier League only trending at 2.68 goals per 90 this season, which is almost 0.6 of a goal fewer than two seasons ago, I'm a little wary of backing over lines.
The smarter play when your read on a game is for goals is to slide across into the goalscorer markets instead and chase a bigger price. Antoine Semenyo, who has scored eight goals in last 10 Premier League appearances, is the play at 7/2 with Sky Bet.
Looking at the data, Bournemouth's aim is to get him into dangerous positions in transition and City will leave spaces to be hit via that tactic. In what should be a goal heavy game, simply backing him to score at 7/2 is the smartest way to get a goals and pro Bournemouth play on side.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Sunderland vs Everton, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Everyone's talking about Jack Grealish, yet, he's not even Everton's best player.
If you actually use your eyes rather than just concentrate on the Grealish love-in, it's Iliman Ndiaye who's running the show in the final third. He's the one drifting between the lines, wriggling into pockets of space defenders hate and, crucially for us punters, is getting into shooting positions with real intent. Something that Grealish isn't doing.
Ndiaye has already scored three goals this season - two more than Grealish. He's had seven shots on target - three more than Grealish and his expected goals return is higher by 1.5 expected goals than Grealish.
He's also the penalty taker for Everton, meaning the anytime goalscorer price of 3/1 with Sky Bet being dangled is too juicy to pass up. You're effectively investing at 3/1 in Everton's most advanced and most involved attacking player who also could have a free shot from 12 yards if the ref points to the spot.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Jones Knows' best bets:
- 1pt on Micky van de Ven to score (14/1 with Sky Bet)
- 1pt double on Nottingham Forest double chance & Newcastle to be winning at half-time (5/2 with Sky Bet)
