Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides his insight across the Premier League midweek card.
Bournemouth vs Tottenham, Wednesday 7.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
Cristian Romero likes to defend in a manner that can quickly tip over from assertive to reckless. It's why referees know his name. Eight yellow cards and a red already this season tells its own story.
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Bournemouth are very good at inviting chaos that leads to cards. Andoni Iraola's side want to play quickly, get the ball into feet between the lines and force centre-backs to make decisions they don't want to make. That's where Evanilson comes in - a striker who is a genuine card magnet.
Since the start of last season he's drawn 21 cards from opponents - only Bruno Guimarães has drawn more.
Romero is 2/1 with Sky Bet to be carded. It's a bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Cristian Romero (2/1 with Sky Bet)
Brentford vs Sunderland, Wednesday, 7.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
Robin Roefs has been nothing short of sensational since his £11.5m move from NEC Nijmegen in August. Seven clean sheets bagged already this season, including three in the last five games, tells the story. His save ratio of 78.4 per cent is the best in the league.
Roefs leads all goalkeepers for xG prevented at +4.9, meaning he's conceded almost five goals fewer than expected and only Martin Dubravka has made more saves this season (70). Away from home across his last nine games, he's averaging 4.3 saves per 90 where those backing his 4+ saves line have landed the money in seven of those games.
Brentford arrive in great nick, having taken 10 points and scored 10 goals in their last four games, and are turning games into ones where the opposition goalkeeper is constantly called into action. Roefs to make four or more saves at 10/11 with Sky Bet rates as a value play.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa, Wednesday 7.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
This fixture is all about the dugout dynamic.
Crystal Palace under Oliver Glasner seem to know exactly how to play Aston Villa and Unai Emery. The record is startling. Palace are unbeaten in the last six meetings, winning five of them, with an aggregate score of 19-4. Pure domination.
And when patterns like that persist across different game states, venues and moments in the season, it's fair to declare that Glasner has Emery's number. It's a system Villa have repeatedly struggled to solve. Every time they try to step on Palace, they get pulled into transitional chaos, exactly where Glasner's side thrive.
At Selhurst Park, with Palace's recent dominance in this fixture and a manager who repeatedly outmanoeuvres his opposite number, the fact Palace are the outsiders at 2/1 with Sky Bet rates as a juicy angle to attack.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Everton vs Wolves, Wednesday 7.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
Defensively, Wolves look transformed.
Across their last five Premier League matches, Wolves have posted an expected goals against figure of just 1.01 per 90 - it's the second-best defensive record in the league over that sample size. And context elevates it further. This run includes games against Arsenal, Manchester United and Liverpool - fixtures that usually inflate defensive numbers rather than squeeze them. West Ham found that out on Saturday.
They were restricted to scraps in terms of attacking return while for the first time this season the Wolves attack found a ruthless streak in the 3-0 win. Similar results may follow in recent weeks.
Everton could struggle to find a way through making the double chance option on the away win a bet to play at Evens with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Fulham vs Chelsea, Wednesday 7.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
Whether it's Joao Pedro dropping in and rolling defenders or Liam Delap playing on the shoulder and inviting contact, Chelsea's forwards are excellent at turning physical battles into card parties. Fouls get drawn. And cards tend to follow.
Eight centre-backs have been carded against Chelsea in their last 15 games, so Fulham defender Jorge Cuenca could be walking into a proper examination here.
Cuenca's recent record suggests he's not immune to catching the referee's eye. He's been booked in two of his last four games and historically he carries a fairly punchy card profile. A 0.28 cards-per-90 ratio from his time in La Liga tells you he's a defender who plays on the front foot, happy to engage early rather than drop off. The 7/2 with Sky Bet for a Cuenca card has a chance.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Jorge Cuenca (7/2 with Sky Bet)
Manchester City vs Brighton, Wednesday 7.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
Brighton are not your average mid-table Premier League team when visiting the elite, and the numbers prove it.
When you dig into Brighton's data against the Premier League's best in class, the picture becomes very interesting for those of us who like a shot bet when the prices are right.
From 12 games against Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City under Fabian Hurzerler's watch, Brighton have averaged a very impressive 14.5 shots per game to a backdrop of a significantly healthy 1.5 expected goals per game. That is an outrageous output and one which deserves full respect in this fixture where City could be without their first-choice defensive duo in Josko Gvardiol and Ruben Dias.
The markets are behind on this shots curve. We can jump on Brighton to register 10 or more shots at Evens with Sky Bet - something they have landed in their last three head-to-heads with Pep Guardiola's side.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Burnley vs Manchester United, Wednesday 8.15pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
Although Wolves are propping up the division, Burnley, according to the data, are actually the worst of the 20 teams.
Their expected goals against numbers show them conceding 2.00 xG per 90, the worst figure in the division - that's a team consistently allowing opponents high-quality chances in dangerous areas. Burnley also sit bottom of the league for xG supremacy, posting a damaging -1.07 per 90. In simple terms, they're being comprehensively outplayed almost every week.
Shot volume reinforces the same message. Burnley face more shots than any other Premier League team and concede more big chances than anyone else. This looks a fantastic opportunity for Manchester United's attackers to flex their muscles and the 7/4 with Sky Bet on them on the -1 handicap market looks an interesting angle to explore.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-3
Newcastle vs Leeds, Wednesday 8.15pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6!
Newcastle have scored at least twice in each of their last 11 home matches. That attacking consistency was on show again last time out when they delivered exactly what was expected by this column against Crystal Palace, where the 10/11 for a home win and over 1.5 Newcastle goals landed. No need to change a winning formula then.
Expect goals, expect control and expect Newcastle to deliver in front of their own fans yet again. The 4/5 on offer through the Sky Bet BuildABet function for Newcastle to win and over 1.5 Newcastle goals remains a bet to follow.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Arsenal vs Liverpool, Thursday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
According to the Premier League title-winning odds, it's never been more likely this season than now that Arsenal will land the outright prize. After Chelsea's late salvo at Manchester City, the 1/4 on offer with Sky Bet on Arsenal for the title is the shortest price they've been all season. Only Arsenal can stop Arsenal now.
For this game the under 2.5 goals line is worth a look at 11/10 with Sky Bet. Mikel Arteta and Arne Slot are cut from a similar cloth. Territory matters. Risk management matters. Neither wants a basketball match
When two managers are this obsessed with control, the game often eats itself. In big games between elite managers of this nature, it often promises drama and delivers tension instead. One goal either way could be enough.
